The projection for 2022 is unchanged from the last estimate, made in july, but next year's has been trimmed by 0.2 percentage points.

The global slowdown will be broad-based, and the projection for 2023 is less than half of last year's 6% expansion.

Countries representing about one-third of the world economy are expected to record two consecutive quarters of contraction in real gross domestic product this year or next.

The outlook is also fraught with uncertainty. According to our estimates, there is a 25% chance that global growth will fall below 2% next year, and a 10% to 15% chance that it will fall below 1%.

The 2023 slowdown will be broad-based, with countries representing about one-third of the global economy set to contract this year or next.

The three largest economies, the United States, China and the euro area will continue to stagnate. Overall, this year's shocks will reopen economic wounds that only partially healed after the pandemic.

Rising price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by reducing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability. Central banks are now laser-focused on restoring price stability, and the pace of tightening has accelerated considerably.