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At the base of the market behavior are external speculative factors, which have limited the advance of prices in spite of the existence of positive fundamentals on the supply side.
Determining factors of the price movement:
The market continues to assimilate Colombia's trade data The rains of recent months (associated with the La Niña phenomenon) impacted production potential, and this has been reflected in production figures. The Colombian harvest in the last twelve months (March 2022 to february 2023) totaled 11.2 million bags of 60 kilos, a drop of 8% compared to the same period a year earlier, when it achieved 12.2 million bags.
The International Coffee Organization projected last week that the 2022/23 coffee year will close again with a supply deficit of up to 4 million 60 kg bags. Under normal conditions, this situation is positive for prices.
Inventories certified by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) remain at around 783 thousand 60 kilogram bags. The outlook is stable, with only 13,000 bags outstanding.
Translated by: A.M