A. M. The volume of world merchandise trade recorded a significant rebound in the first quarter of 2025, with growth of 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year, according to the most recent report from the World Trade Organization (WTO). This increase was largely driven by a surge of imports into North America in anticipation of the entry into force of new tariffs announced by the United States for the second quarter of the year.
Trade performance exceeded the WTO’s previous projections of 2.7% annual growth in its baseline scenario. However, economists warn that this pace could slow in the coming months as inventories stabilize and the impact of tariff measures reduces global demand for imports. In mid-June, the adjusted forecast for all of 2025 stood at just 0.1%.
In value terms, world trade measured in US dollars grew by 4% year-on-year during the first quarter. This result reflects a robust increase in volume, although export prices fell. Despite a slight decline from the previous quarter due to seasonal effects, seasonally adjusted figures continue to show an upward trend.
Trade growth was not homogeneous across regions. North America led the increase in imports with a 13.4 % rise, followed by Africa (5.1 %) and Latin America (3.6 %). In contrast, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was the only region with a decrease (-0.5 %). In exports, the Middle East led growth with 6.3 %, while the CIS again recorded a decline (-1.0 %).
These figures reflect the resilience of global trade in the face of tariff uncertainty, but also underline the fragility of the current economic environment. The growth observed in the first quarter may not be sustained in the rest of the year if trade tensions continue, affecting recovery expectations for emerging and developed economies alike.
