A. M. 
World trade will close 2024 at a record $33 trillion, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This trillion-dollar increase over 2023 reflects a resilient economy, driven by 3.3% global growth. However, economic and geopolitical challenges persist, creating uncertainty for the coming years.
The increase in world trade is led by services, which grew 7% in 2024, contributing $500 billion to the total. In contrast, trade in goods grew just 2%, remaining below its 2022 peak. This differential shows the growing importance of the services sector in global economic dynamism.
UNCTAD warns that the shift in trade policies announced by the next US administration, which will take office on 20 January, could have a significant impact in 2025. These measures would include broad tariffs affecting both geopolitical adversaries and key trading partners with high trade surpluses against the United States.
New US tariffs could destabilize global value chains, UNCTAD said. Even small increases in tariffs would have a considerable impact due to the US position as an essential consumer market and the interconnectedness of global trade.
Although 2024 marks a record year, the outlook for 2025 is less optimistic. Escalating trade wars, geopolitical tensions and shifts in protectionist policies could limit the dynamism of global trade, UNCTAD warned, stressing the need for international cooperation to avoid further disruption.
