A. M. Oil prices recorded an immediate rebound of more than 5% following Israel’s airstrike against Iran, in a context of growing tension in the Middle East. Despite the initial impact on energy markets, JPMorgan believes that the effects will be temporary and expects Brent crude to remain between US$60 and US$65 until 2026.
Currently, Brent futures are trading just below US$75, driven by fears of a global supply disruption. However, the financial firm warns that the real risk lies in a possible blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which could push the price up to US$130 per barrel, triggering global inflationary pressures.
JPMorgan’s analysis indicates that while the conflict between Israel and Iran has generated an immediate response in the markets, a prolonged impact is not expected in the second half of 2025, unless the geopolitical situation escalates critically. For the time being, projected stability is maintained.
The report also highlights the vulnerability of economies highly dependent on crude oil, such as the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, which would see their fiscal strategies affected if the price were to exceed $100 per barrel for a prolonged period. The current volatility reinforces the need to diversify energy sources and strengthen reserves.
