A. M. 
The economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will maintain moderate growth during 2026, with an estimated expansion of 2.3%, slightly below the 2.4% recorded in 2025, before rebounding to 2.5% in 2027, according to projections from the United Nations (UN). This is according to the global economic outlook report prepared by the Departamento de Asuntos Económicos y Sociales (DESA).
According to the document, the region’s performance will be driven primarily by increased private consumption, a gradual recovery in investment, and improved financial conditions—factors that have allowed economic activity to be sustained despite an international environment marked by uncertainty.
However, the UN warns that the benefits of growth will not be uniform. The region faces unequal impacts stemming from new tariff measures applied by the United States, changes in the migration policies of the main destination countries and the increase in maritime transport costs, elements that alter trade flows, supply chains and remittance patterns.
The report underscores that, although global trade showed resilience in 2025 with 3.8% growth, a significant slowdown is projected for 2026, when trade expansion is expected to fall to 2.2%. This could particularly affect Latin American economies that are highly dependent on foreign trade.
Global context: Growth below pre-pandemic average
Globally, the UN projects that the economy will grow by 2.7% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2025 and the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%. While the report acknowledges the resilience shown by the global economy, attributed to strong consumption and slowing inflation, it warns that trade tensions, higher tariffs, and fiscal pressures continue to limit growth momentum.
The document also notes that investment remains subdued in most regions, affected by geopolitical tensions and restricted fiscal space, especially in developing economies, where high levels of debt and its costs reduce the scope for public policy maneuvering.
Uneven regional outlook
Projections show uneven growth across regions. The United States is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2026, slightly above 2025, although with risks associated with a weakening labor market. In the European Union, expansion is projected to slow to 1.3%, affected by higher tariffs and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
In East Asia, growth is expected to moderate to 4.4%, while China is projected to grow by 4.6%, supported by targeted policy measures. Africa is expected to grow by 4.0%, although it faces significant risks from high debt and climate shocks, and West Asia is projected to reach 4.1%, amid geopolitical tensions.
Inflation, debt, and structural challenges
The UN forecasts that global inflation will continue to decline, from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2026, although it warns that high prices continue to affect real incomes, especially for the most vulnerable sectors. The report emphasizes that supply risks and geopolitical and climate shocks require closer coordination between monetary, fiscal, and social policies.
It also highlights that advances in artificial intelligence have boosted investment in some markets, but its benefits could be unevenly distributed, widening existing structural gaps.
A call for multilateral cooperation
Finally, the report warns of the weakening of multilateral efforts in the context of trade realignments and geopolitical tensions. The UN insists on the need for decisive collective action and strengthened international cooperation.
“Sustained progress will depend on rebuilding trust and renewing the commitment to an open, rules-based multilateral trading system,” the document states, identifying the Seville Commitment as a key roadmap for reforming the international financial architecture and expanding development financing.
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