A. M. The global economy is on a recessionary trajectory and could slow to 2.3% growth in 2025, warns UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its latest report “Trade and Development Foresights 2025” Growing trade tensions and persistent uncertainty are altering global economic dynamics, weakening prospects for development and stability.
The report stresses that current uncertainty is affecting investment decisions and job creation, while volatile trade policies disrupt supply chains. UNCTAD stresses that lack of predictability has become a key obstacle to sustained economic growth.
Developing economies face an increasingly complex and risky external environment. However, UNCTAD notes that there are opportunities in strengthening South-South trade and deepening regional integration, which could mitigate the adverse effects of the global slowdown.
The organization urgently calls for greater international economic policy coordination. It considers a collective effort to stabilize the global trading system, increase investment and sustain growth, especially in the most vulnerable regions, to be essential.
UNCTAD’s report coincides with the downward revision made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which reduced its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, from a previously estimated 3.3%. The IMF attributes this correction to the “significant impact” of trade tensions and growing global political uncertainty.
Both organizations warn that, without coordinated actions and structural reforms, the world economy could enter a prolonged phase of low growth, with particularly severe negative effects for developing countries. Global economic stability, UNCTAD concludes, increasingly depends on strengthened regional and multilateral cooperation.
