A. M. 
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has projected a 3.0% growth in world merchandise trade by 2025. This forecast reflects a slight improvement over the estimated 2.7% increase for 2024. However, the organization warns that the global economic outlook faces significant challenges that could negatively impact these figures. Factors such as geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainties represent key risks to the stability and growth of international trade.
Geopolitical tensions have been a determining factor in the slowdown of global trade in recent years. Trade conflicts, economic sanctions and territorial disputes have generated instability in various regions, affecting supply chains and raising trade costs. These challenges have not only impacted trade in goods, but have also slowed investment and weakened confidence in global markets.
Despite these obstacles, the outlook for trade in services is more optimistic. According to leading indicators, this sector shows greater resilience in the face of economic and geopolitical challenges. Digitization, the rise of online services and increased demand in sectors such as technology and healthcare have helped boost trade in services, which could play a crucial role in global economic recovery.
The WTO emphasizes the importance of stable and cooperative economic policies to mitigate the risks facing global trade. Strengthening multilateral relations and seeking negotiated solutions to trade disputes are key to fostering a more predictable and favorable environment for economic growth. A coordinated effort is also needed to address vulnerabilities in supply chains.
Although, forecasts for 2025 show a slight optimism, underlying risks could significantly affect these expectations. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties remain the main challenges. However, the dynamism of trade in services could offer a key opportunity to balance the global trade landscape in the coming years.
