A. M. The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that, despite a temporary pause in tariffs, world merchandise trade could contract by 0.2% in 2025, with risks of a more pronounced fall if trade tensions are reactivated. North America would be the hardest hit region, with an expected 12.6% reduction in exports.
According to the World Trade Outlook and Statistics report, trade policy uncertainty, especially between the United States and China, continues to negatively affect global economic growth. If reciprocal tariffs are resumed and political uncertainty spreads, the drop in trade could reach 1.5% next year.
For the first time, the report includes projections for services trade, which is estimated to grow by 4.0 % in 2025, a lower figure than expected. Although these services are not directly subject to tariffs, they are affected by the general instability of trade.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala expressed concern about the impact this uncertainty could have on the most vulnerable economies, highlighting the opportunity for WTO members to revitalize their mechanisms and promote a more equitable system.
The report also shows that Asia and Europe will see slight growth in their trade, while other regions will continue to contribute positively, largely thanks to stable demand for energy products. In contrast, North America would have a strong negative impact on global figures.
