A. M. 
By 2024, the value of goods exports from Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 3.2% year-on-year, following a 1.6% drop in 2023, according to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). This rebound is attributed to an increase in exported quantities and price stabilization. However, the Trade and Integration Monitor 2024 report warns that the recovery is not yet consolidated, due to external factors such as price volatility and geopolitical tensions.
Despite the growth in goods, services exports showed a slowdown, growing by 9.5% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to an average of 12.2% in 2023. Even so, this pace exceeds the global average of 7.1%, highlighting the resilience of knowledge-based services, such as business and IT.
The report notes that the terms of trade improved, as import prices fell by 3.1%, more than those of exports (-0.5%). However, intra-regional sales decreased by 4.5%, reducing their share to 13.7% of total trade. This highlights the fragility of intra-regional trade, in the face of a 4.1% growth in exports to the rest of the world.
Knowledge-based services grew by an average of 4.7% per year over the last decade, outpacing exports of goods. However, their advance is lower than that of the rest of the world (7.0%), with a greater concentration in less sophisticated activities, vulnerable to technological disruption, such as artificial intelligence.
The IDB stresses the need to address structural lags, such as human capital development, digital infrastructure and business climate, in order to boost these exports. It also emphasizes the importance of overcoming external barriers that limit access to international markets and affect regional competitiveness.
In an uncertain global context, marked by protectionism, climate change and macroeconomic challenges, the report concludes that Latin America and the Caribbean must diversify its trade strategy to take advantage of opportunities in more dynamic and resilient segments of global trade.
