dinero_admin The recent imposition of tariffs on Mexican products by the Donald Trump administration could trigger a forceful response from Mexico by restricting the flow of agricultural workers to the United States. The measure, which would affect key states such as Texas, California and North Carolina, would seek to generate pressure in sectors where Mexican labor is indispensable.
“We want them to feel the sanctions where it hurts the most”, said a Mexican cabinet member, hinting that the government is willing to use this mechanism as trade retaliation. Currently, nearly 50% of agricultural workers in the United States do not have legally recognized immigration status, according to USDA data, which is evidence of the sector’s dependence on this labor force.
The states most affected by a possible restriction would be Florida (12.3%), Georgia (11.3%), California (9.7%), Washington (9.3%) and North Carolina (7.2%), as they rely heavily on foreign day laborers. According to the Wilson Center, 90% of these workers come from Mexico, reinforcing the impact such a decision would have on U.S. agricultural production.
Beyond the political tensions, the situation could translate into a supply problem for U.S. consumers. Without temporary Mexican workers, sectors such as citrus, berry and vegetable production could face serious delays and a reduction in supply, which would raise prices in supermarkets.
Mexico’s potential strategy reflects a shift in migration and trade dynamics with the United States. While in the past the country has sought to negotiate with Washington to maintain the flow of agricultural workers, this time it could use it as a pressure tool in response to the tariffs imposed by Trump.
The Mexican government has not yet made an official announcement, but the mere suggestion of this measure is already generating concern in the U.S. agricultural sector. With the harvest season underway, any restriction could translate into millions of dollars in losses and a labor crisis in the North American countryside.
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