The International Monetary Fund (IMF) notes that we are on the verge of a digital revolution driven by artificial intelligence (AI), with the potential to revitalize productivity, stimulate economic growth and raise incomes. However, this advance also brings with it challenges, such as job replacement and rising inequality. To harness this technology safely and equitably, effective policy design will be essential.
AI is reshaping the global labor market. According to an IMF analysis, nearly 40% of global jobs are exposed to this technology. In advanced economies, where the impact is most significant, up to 60% of jobs may be affected. While AI could improve productivity in some cases, it may also reduce labor demand in others, leading to job losses and wage pressures.
In contrast, emerging markets and low-income countries will face less exposure to AI, with an estimated impact of 40% and 26%, respectively. However, these regions face barriers such as lack of infrastructure and skilled labor, which could limit their ability to benefit from the technology, deepening inequality between nations.
Within countries, AI may accentuate economic disparities. Workers who succeed in harnessing its capabilities will experience an increase in productivity and wages, while those unable to adapt will be left behind. Younger people may benefit more from these opportunities, while older generations will face greater difficulties in adapting.
Income and wealth will also polarize. Highly paid workers and companies that adopt AI will likely experience a significant increase in income, exacerbating inequality. In addition, returns to capital could rise, further favoring those already in privileged positions.
To mitigate these risks, it is crucial that governments take proactive measures. More robust social safety nets and training programs for vulnerable workers will be essential to protect livelihoods and prevent social tensions from escalating due to AI.
Ultimately, the transition to an AI-driven economy must be managed in an inclusive manner. Only with responsible policies and an equitable approach will we be able to harness the vast potential of artificial intelligence for the benefit of all humanity.