A. M. 
Mortgage rates in the United States rose this week to 6.11%, according to a Freddie Mac survey of lenders, amid growing economic uncertainty linked to the conflict between President Donald Trump’s administration and Iran. As reported by CNN, the increase reflects the reaction of financial markets to geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.11% in the week ending march 12, representing the largest weekly increase since April. At that time, bond yields rose following the tariff policy known as “Liberation Day”, implemented by the Trump administration.
The increase comes just two weeks after mortgage rates fell below 6% for the first time since 2022, a level considered by analysts to be an important psychological threshold that typically boosts homebuyer confidence.
The movement in mortgage rates is closely tied to the performance of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for the cost of real estate financing. In recent days, its yield has climbed to 4.25%, the highest level since early february.
This surge has occurred amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, following attacks launched by the United States and Israel against targets in Iran earlier this month. The tension has driven up international oil prices, increasing fears of renewed inflationary pressure globally.
When energy prices rise, markets typically anticipate higher levels of inflation. This leads investors to sell Treasury bonds, which raise their yields and ultimately results in higher mortgage rates. In this context, analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could limit the ability of the US Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates in the short term, as the institution usually acts cautiously when there are inflationary risks.
Mortgage industry experts have indicated that, without current geopolitical tensions, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond would likely be below 4%, allowing mortgage rates to remain closer to the upper 5% range.
The U.S. housing market has been facing difficulties for several years due to a combination of high mortgage rates, rising home prices, and a limited supply of properties—factors that have priced out many potential buyers, especially first-time homebuyers.
Despite this, some indicators had begun to show signs of improvement. Data from the National Association of Realtors indicates that existing home sales rose 1.7% in February, driven in part by the slight decrease in mortgage rates seen in recent months.
However, the current increase in rates comes just as the spring buying season approaches, considered the busiest time of year for the U.S. housing market.
Industry analysts point out that, during this period, the number of buyers visiting properties and considering purchasing a home typically increases. However, they warn that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could slow market activity if oil prices continue to rise and mortgage rates maintain their upward trend.
Thus, the performance of the U.S. real estate market in the coming months will depend largely on the evolution of geopolitical tensions, their impact on energy prices, and the monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve.
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