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El Salvador’s economy is projected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, according to the new projection from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), presented this thursday in its Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2026. This estimate places the country above the projected growth for Latin America and the Caribbean and represents an improvement over the organization’s previous calculation.
ECLAC raised its forecast for El Salvador by 0.6 percentage points, from an estimate of 3.3% made in april to the new projection of 3.9%. If this scenario materializes, the salvadoran economy would maintain the same rate of expansion in 2026 as it did in 2025, when it also grew by 3.9%.
The projected growth for El Salvador significantly exceeds the regional average. For Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC estimates 2.2% growth in 2026, meaning the salvadoran economy would grow 1.7 percentage points faster than the region as a whole. The organization notes that Latin America maintains a moderate growth scenario, conditioned by structural constraints.
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Within Central America, El Salvador also ranks among the economies with the best prospects for this year. ECLAC projects growth of 4.5% for Nicaragua, 4.4% for Panama, 4.0% for Guatemala, 3.9% for El Salvador, 3.7% for Costa Rica, and 3.5% for Honduras.
One of the key factors in the salvadoran outlook is the performance of family remittances. According to the study, during the first quarter of 2026, remittance income to El Salvador increased by 19% year-on-year, demonstrating a resilient trend that ECLAC considers essential to the national economy.
Remittances also have a significant impact on El Salvador, representing more than 20% of its GDP. ECLAC highlights that these flows are especially important for the sustainability of the external position of Central American countries, where they have a high share of the economy.
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Although the projection for 2026 is favorable for El Salvador, ECLAC warns that the region continues to face obstacles to accelerating its growth. These include low levels of investment, weak productivity growth, a slowdown in formal job creation, and high levels of informality.
For 2027, ECLAC forecasts a slight moderation of Salvadoran growth, to 3.7%. However, the economy would continue to expand above the regional average, which is projected to rise to 2.5%. Thus, the new projections show that El Salvador would maintain a growth rate of 3.9% during 2026, higher than the expected performance for Latin America and the Caribbean.
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