A. M. 
The past year has been one of the most turbulent for global trade; traditional alliances have been under pressure, and trade relationships have been reassessed, not only between geopolitically distant partners but also between long-standing allies. Despite this, trade has increasingly shifted toward economies with greater affinity, while continuing to grow in line with global output.
This reconfiguration, documented over the past three years by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), intensified in 2025 when US tariff rates reached their highest level since World War II. The increases not only deepened an already ongoing realignment but also shifted more than $165 billion from the US-China trade corridor, demonstrating how tariffs have spread throughout the trade network alongside other key forces such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the growth of emerging markets.
However, 2025 also defied expectations. Despite increased tariffs, global trade did not contract; both US imports and Chinese exports reached new highs. In fact, the United States solidified its position as the main driver of global import growth, largely fueled by anticipated inventory buildup in anticipation of tariffs, as well as by the growing demand for technological infrastructure associated with AI.
In this context, MGI highlights the following key perspectives on the evolution of global trade:
• Global trade defied expectations in 2025. Despite an environment marked by geopolitical tensions and higher tariffs, trade flows not only remained resilient but expanded at a faster pace than global growth, driven by a shift towards partners with greater geopolitical affinity.
• Artificial intelligence solidified its position as a key driver of trade. Exports of semiconductors and data center equipment accounted for a third of global trade growth, as Asian hubs supplied markets worldwide, particularly the United States.
• China strengthened its role as a global supplier of industrial inputs. By increasing its exports of components and capital goods to emerging economies, it is consolidating its position as a “factory for factories,” supplying advanced manufacturing centers.
• Tariffs accelerated the reconfiguration of trade flows. Trade between the United States and China fell by nearly 30%, with the United States substituting much of these imports with other markets, while Chinese exporters lowered prices to access new destinations.
• Short-term volatility demands greater adaptability. Tariff changes in 2025 were abrupt, and this year is already showing new disruptions, reinforcing the need to combine long-term strategic vision with operational agility.
Emerging Economies: Opportunities across the geopolitical spectrum
Emerging economies played a key role in reshaping global trade, finding opportunities across the entire geopolitical spectrum. By 2025, trade decisions were primarily driven by domestic development priorities, enabling economies such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), India, and Brazil to diversify their trade relationships. These shifts offset changes among trading partners, keeping average geopolitical distances relatively stable, even as geographical distances increased.
How this materialized varied according to each economy’s strengths. ASEAN, for example, consolidated its position as a manufacturing hub, increasing its imports of inputs from China and its exports of finished goods to the United States. In India, trade accompanied robust domestic growth, although exports remained largely stable, with the exception of the smartphone sector, where the country came to supply nearly half of the US demand previously met by China. Brazil, for its part, stood out as one of the few countries to significantly expand its exports to China, mainly replacing commodities that previously came from the United States.
Meanwhile, while some categories, especially lightly processed goods such as wood, furniture, and iron, were affected by the anticipation of new tariffs in the United States and stricter environmental regulations in Europe, more advanced manufacturing sectors showed stronger growth. Almost a third of export growth came from the automotive sector, driven by increased shipments to Argentina following the reduction of trade barriers, suggesting greater potential for deepening intraregional trade in Latin America, where ample room for growth remains.
This dynamism is also reinforced by greater diversification in global demand. The European Union, for example, has expanded its trade relations beyond its traditional partners, increasing both its exports to emerging markets and its imports from regions such as Latin America. In particular, the region has gained importance as a destination for higher value-added European exports, such as medical and scientific equipment, as it consolidates its role as a strategic supplier of agricultural products, metals, and minerals. Taking together, these flows point to greater integration of Latin America into a more diversified and multipolar global trade network.
Overall, 2025 revealed an accelerated reconfiguration of global trade, marked by both short-term shocks and broader structural forces. The result was an uneven year: robust trade growth accompanied by geopolitical realignment, sharp year-over-year fluctuations in US imports, record Chinese exports despite weaknesses in some key categories, a Europe under pressure on multiple fronts, and new opportunities for emerging economies.
For businesses, this environment demands a simultaneous response to long-term structural changes and short-term disruptions. The adjustments resulting from tariffs illustrate the necessary speed of adaptation. In this context, the McKinsey Global Institute believes that the leaders who will excel will be those capable of positioning themselves for lasting structural changes while maintaining the agility to respond to immediate disruptions, continuously adjusting their bets across trade corridors as the evidence evolves.
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