A. M. 
The managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warned that governments worldwide must prepare for extreme economic scenarios given the rise in global instability, particularly due to tensions and conflict in the Middle East.
According to the international newspaper El País, during a conference on the future of the international economic system held in Tokyo, the economist delivered a direct message to economic policymakers: “Think about the unthinkable and prepare for it”, referring to the risks currently facing the global economy.
Georgieva explained that the international landscape has become more uncertain due to geopolitical conflicts, pressures in energy markets, and a series of recent crises that have tested global economic stability.
Impact on energy markets and inflation
The IMF warned that the conflict in the Middle East is once again putting pressure on energy supplies, especially due to the risks affecting strategic oil and gas trade routes.
One of the most sensitive points is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s main energy routes. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and liquefied natural gas trade passes through this strait, so any disruption could have significant repercussions for international markets.
According to Georgieva, a sustained 10% increase in oil prices could raise global inflation by around 0.4 percentage points, in addition to causing a slight slowdown in global economic growth. Higher oil prices typically affect multiple sectors of the economy, as they increase transportation, industrial production, and energy generation costs, ultimately impacting the prices of goods and services.
Recommendations for facing new crises
Given this scenario, Georgieva urged governments to focus on strengthening their capacity to respond to unexpected economic crises.
Among the IMF’s main recommendations, she highlighted:
• Strengthening economic institutions and public policy frameworks
• Maintaining sufficient fiscal space to respond to future economic emergencies.
• Acting quickly and flexibly in the face of unexpected shocks.
The IMF managing director noted that in recent years the global economy has faced multiple consecutive crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the rising cost of living in many economies.
“Shocks will continue to come” Georgieva warned, noting that even if the current conflict subsides, the global economic system will continue to face periods of uncertainty.
Outlook for the global economy
Despite the risks, the IMF believes that the global economy has demonstrated considerable adaptability in recent years. Currently, the organization projects that global growth will reach 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
However, the organization warned that geopolitical and energy volatility will continue to influence inflation, trade, and economic growth in the coming years.
The IMF also reported that it is currently gathering information on the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East. The results of this analysis will be published in the next edition of the World Economic Outlook, one of the organization’s most important macroeconomic reports.
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