A. M. 
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has issued a strong warning about the future of the global economy, noting that trade fragmentation could trigger a crisis with consequences more severe than the one experienced in 2008. The warning, revealed in an exclusive interview with WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill for Bloomberg Línea, underscores the risks of a division into trading blocs led by the United States and China.
According to the WTO, if the global economy is divided, the impact on global GDP could be significant, disproportionately affecting least-developed countries, which would feel the brunt with a possible double-digit decline. Although dialogue has so far avoided an aggressive escalation of tariffs, the “trade war” has altered growth projections. The WTO has lowered its forecast for global trade volume growth for 2026, from 2.5% to 1.8%.
However, the organization sees the current tensions as an opportunity to reexamine the trading system. The WTO promotes the idea of ”globalization 2.0″ that integrates more people and regions into value chains, highlighting that the services export sector offers a great opportunity for Latin American countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica, and Argentina, which already show strong development in this area.
She thinks a predictable and open trading system has been key to lifting millions out of poverty. Therefore, the WTO insists on the importance of fostering dialogue and stability. “We must not underestimate the issue of uncertainty that changes in trade policies can cause”, concluded Director Hill, underscoring the need for a systemic approach to economic development.
