A. M. 
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a decline in global economic growth because of the prolonged effects of the conflict in the Middle East and the sustained increase in oil prices, according to data released by the EFE news agency.
The warning was issued by the IMF’s Director of Communications, Julie Kozack, who acknowledged that “significant disruptions” are already being observed in the global economy, especially due to the disruption in the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
As Kozack explained, the rise in oil prices (which have increased by up to 50% in the last month) is driving up energy costs globally, directly impacting inflation and economic activity. This situation reduces the dynamism of economies and puts pressure on growth prospects.
The IMF detailed that there is a direct relationship between the rise in oil prices and the economic slowdown. As a point of reference, the spokesperson indicated that a sustained 10% increase in the price of oil could generate a drop in global production of between 0.1% and 0.2%, demonstrating the negative effect of so-called energy shocks.
This projection comes at a time when the organization had already anticipated risks to the global economy. In January, the IMF estimated global growth of 3.3% for 2026 but warned that this could be affected by factors such as geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, and reduced investment.
In addition to the impact on growth, Kozack noted that rising commodity prices, coupled with disruptions in fertilizer supplies and problems in maritime transport, could lead to an increase in food prices, affecting both developed and developing countries.
The official also highlighted the increased financial volatility in various regions, including advanced economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, as well as emerging markets. This instability adds pressure on investment and global economic performance.
The IMF emphasized that the magnitude of the impact will depend on the duration, scope, and intensity of the conflict. However, the preliminary assessment points to a weakening of global growth in the context of high uncertainty.
Finally, Kozack indicated that the organization would update its projections in its next World Economic Outlook report, which will more accurately reflect the effects of the conflict and the rise in oil prices on the international economy.
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