A. M. 
Oil prices are poised to register their biggest weekly gain since late october, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, US pressure on Venezuela, and a recent US military strike in Nigeria. However, this rally comes against a backdrop of structural market weakness, as crude is also headed for its biggest annual decline since 2020.
According to Bloomberg Online, Brent crude, the international benchmark, has remained above $62 per barrel this week, accumulating a gain of more than 3%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is above $58. This behavior reflects the market’s sensitivity to political and security events affecting key producing countries.
One of the central factors has been the tightening of US actions against Venezuelan crude oil exports. According to sources close to the matter, the White House has ordered its commanders to focus for the next two months on quarantining Venezuelan oil, prioritizing an operational blockade over military options. In this context, a sanctioned oil tanker being pursued by US forces recently moved away from Venezuelan waters, demonstrating the increased pressure on the South American country.
Adding to this scenario is the instability in Africa, after US President Donald Trump confirmed the launch of a “powerful and lethal attack” against Islamic State targets in northwestern Nigeria. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that further actions could follow. Nigeria, an OPEC member, produced around 1.5 million barrels per day in november, so any disruption to its production generates unease in energy markets.
Despite the weekly rebound, the underlying outlook remains complex. Brent crude has fallen by nearly 16% this year, heading for its worst performance since 2020. This trend reflects expectations of a global crude oil surplus in 2026, as most major market players anticipate oversupply, driven by increased production both within and outside the OPEC+ group.
Analysts point out that while geopolitical conflicts have provided some support to prices, they have not been enough to reverse long-term downward pressure. “Oil prices have been supported by strong US macroeconomic data and geopolitical instability over the past week”, explained Kirill Bakhtin, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Financial Group. However, he cautioned that in the absence of new US economic data in the near term, prices could decline slightly unless international politics continues to have a decisive impact.
Another factor that has benefited commodities is the weakening of the US dollar. The index has fallen 0.7% this week, making crude oil and other commodities cheaper for buyers trading in currencies other than the dollar, thus stimulating demand.
Meanwhile, the European geopolitical context continues to generate attention. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he agreed to a future meeting with Trump, following a “very good conversation” with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with the aim of exploring ways to end the war with Russia. Local media indicated that Zelensky could travel to Florida, where Trump is spending his Christmas holidays, adding another element of uncertainty and anticipation to global markets.
Overall, the oil market is fluctuating between temporary spikes due to conflicts and political pressures, and an annual outlook marked by oversupply and structurally weak prices, creating a volatile scenario for the end of this year and the beginning of next.
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