A. M. 
The WTO Goods Trade Barometer shows a positive sign for global trade, which has rebounded in the third quarter of 2024 after stagnating in the previous year. This rebound comes against a backdrop of high inflation and rising interest rates that affected global merchandise demand in 2023. Although the Barometer index indicates growth, the outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts and changing monetary policy in advanced economies.
The Barometer is a leading indicator that compares current world trade with past trends. A value above 100 indicates that trade is above trend, while a lower value suggests a possible future decline. The latest index value, 103.0, suggests that merchandise trade should continue to grow in the second and third quarters of 2024, even though official data for those periods are not yet available.
Since the end of 2022, the volume of world trade remained stable until it began to increase in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, world trade grew by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter and 1.4% year-over-year. These increases were fairly in line with the most recent WTO forecasts, which anticipated a 2.6% increase by 2024. However, value growth was lower in Europe and higher in other regions.
The Barometer’s partial indices reflect a mixed picture. The electronic components index is below trend, while the auto industry products, container shipping and air freight indices are above trend, although the auto industry products index has shown a recent loss of momentum. The new export orders index, which is a good leading indicator, is barely positive, but has declined, which could indicate future problems.
The raw materials index is almost on trend, but has declined significantly in recent months. This suggests a possible slowdown in the commodities sector, which could impact global trade in the near future.
