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The Asociación Nacional de Agentes Inmobiliarios (NAR) significantly lowered its forecast for existing home sales growth in the United States by 2026, adjusting it to just 4%, well below the previously projected 14%, in a clear sign of a slowdown in the housing market.
The new forecast reflects a more complex environment for the sector, marked primarily by the sustained increase in mortgage rates, which has made financing for home purchases more expensive. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, this factor has been decisive in reducing growth expectations, as it limits access for buyers, especially those purchasing their first home.
The adjustment in projections comes in a context where recent indicators are already showing signs of weakness. During march, existing home sales fell 3.6%, reaching an annualized rate of 3.98 million units, a figure that also fell short of analysts’ estimates surveyed by Bloomberg.
This situation is compounded by external factors that have contributed to tighter market conditions. Among them are geopolitical tensions related to the conflict with Iran, which have put upward pressure on financing costs, including mortgage rates. This has had a direct effect on housing affordability, reducing demand at a crucial time of year.
Despite the slowdown in sales, home prices continue to show some resilience. In march, the median sales price reached $408,800, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.4%. This performance is largely because the inventory of available homes, although it has seen a slight recovery, remains limited in historical terms. According to Bloomberg Economics’ analysis, the market faces a potential supply and demand imbalance. Purchasing conditions have deteriorated for consumers due to the increased cost of credit; on the other, the increased availability of new homes could put additional pressure on prices in the medium term.
Furthermore, the decline in sales has been widespread across different regions of the country, reinforcing the idea of a structural slowdown rather than an isolated phenomenon. Although first-time buyers continue to represent about a third of the market, their purchasing power has been affected by the economic environment.
In this context, the downward revision of the Asociación Nacional de Agentes Inmobiliarios (NAR) marks a significant shift in the outlook for the real estate sector in 2026. What initially appeared to be a year of strong recovery now points to moderate growth, conditioned by factors such as interest rates, affordability, and the evolution of the global economic environment.
Thus, the U.S. housing market faces a year of adjustments, in which the evolution of financial conditions will be key to determining whether the sector manages to stabilize or continues to lose momentum.
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