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Global energy prices could rise by 24% by 2026, according to the World Bank’s latest projections. If this forecast holds true, energy costs would reach their highest level since 2022, impacting on inflation, goods production, and the cost of living in various countries.
The report indicates that the increase will be driven primarily by the rising price of oil, one of the most important energy commodities for the global economy. Specifically, the average price of Brent crude is estimated to reach US$86 per barrel in 2026, compared to US$69 in 2025.
The increase in energy prices would not only affect fuel costs. It could also lead to higher expenses in transportation, logistics, manufacturing, and electricity generation, increasing the operating costs of businesses and productive activities.
Furthermore, the World Bank projects that fertilizer prices will increase by 31% during 2026. This trend is closely linked to rising energy costs, as fertilizer production relies heavily on natural gas and other energy-related inputs.
The institution also warns that the increased cost of energy and fertilizers could be passed on to food prices, affecting both producers and consumers. Lower fertilizer affordability could reduce agricultural profitability and compromise future crop yields.
As a result, inflation in developing economies could reach an average of 5.1% in 2026, exceeding previous forecasts. This would put greater pressure on household budgets, especially on essential items such as transportation, food, and basic services.
The World Bank notes that lower-income households would be the most vulnerable to these increases, as they allocate a significant portion of their resources to cover energy and food-related expenses.
The organization also warns that if current conditions worsen, oil prices could rise even further, averaging up to US$115 per barrel in 2026, which would have an additional impact on inflation and global economic growth.
Given this outlook, the World Bank considers rising energy prices to be one of the main economic challenges for the coming year, due to their effects on production costs, consumer prices, and global economic activity.
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